I.R.IRAN & USA ; The Logic of Cold Peace in Future
The Logic of Cold Peace as Narrated by the Book "Hot Summer"; The Architecture of Crisis Equilibrium in IranIn the aftermath of the 40-day war between Iran and the United States, two opposing narratives have emerged for envisioning the future of this conflict. One narrative emphasizes the necessity of a U.S. ground invasion in the coming autumn or winter, viewing the current memorandum of understanding as merely a tactical move to buy time. This stands against another narrative, which is based on "crisis equilibrium" and the formation of a new order founded on "cold peace." Fouad Shabani, a strategic studies researcher, in his book "Hot Summer; The Architecture of Crisis Equilibrium in Iran," provides a theoretical framework to demonstrate that what lies ahead for Iran and the United States is neither an all-out war nor a warm peace, but rather a "cold peace" under the shadow of a "new Cold War" among the great powers.#ColdPeace #War #Iran #USA #Book #HotSummer #Economy #Understanding #Peace #China #Inflation #Gasoline #PoliticsThe Three Theoretical Pillars of EquilibriumShabani's book is built upon three theoretical pillars that elevate the understanding of "Hot Summer" from the level of a seasonal forecast to that of a structural analysis:
First, Nash Equilibrium at the geopolitical level – a situation in which no actor can improve its position by unilaterally changing its strategy. Shabani believes that the 40-day war between Iran and the United States has precisely led to such a point. This is the same situation known in game theory as "Nash Equilibrium"; a state where any unilateral change will incur exorbitant costs for the transgressing party.Second, Cold Peace at the security level – sustained but manageable tension between the two hostile actors, which has become entrenched after the 40-day war. This central concept of the book answers the question of why, despite deep hostilities, a full-scale new war does not break out.
۳ MB
Third, Crisis Equilibrium at the economic level – a stable but dysfunctional state in the economy and governance that is neither collapse nor complete stability; rather, it is the continuation of a critical situation as the system's steady state. Shabani calls this "dysfunctional stability"; a state in which the economy is neither stable enough to grow nor unstable enough to collapse.
The 40-Day War as a "Equilibrium Builder"One of the most important teachings of Shabani's book is viewing the 40-day war not as a transient crisis, but as an "equilibrium builder." From this perspective, the war was not merely a period of destruction; rather, it was a process that forged a new structure of relations between Iran and the United States. This new structure raised the cost of war for both sides to a level that eliminated the incentive for unilateral change.In the second chapter of the book, by analyzing the 40-day war, Shabani emphasizes the components of mutual deterrence, cheap technology versus expensive technology, and the high cost of escalation. In this war, Iran demonstrated that by employing asymmetric warfare and cheap technology against expensive technology, it could inflict costs on the enemy that would complicate any cost-benefit calculation for the opposing side.
۳ MB
Cold Peace and China's Strategic InterestsIn the sixth chapter, titled "The Architecture of the New Equilibrium," Shabani outlines three levels of equilibrium – geopolitical, economic, and systemic – and shows that cold peace at the geopolitical level precisely serves China's strategic interests. China, as one of the guarantors of global energy stability, seeks the continued flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and aims to prevent price volatility.
The 25-year Comprehensive Cooperation Program between Iran and China has provided a robust foundation for this strategy. From Beijing's perspective, Iran is considered a strategic but "middle-ranking" partner; not strong enough to threaten the regional order, nor weak enough ******** collapse would seriously endanger China's energy supply chain. According to Shabani, China, as a strategic actor, does not seek the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, but rather the consolidation of "cold peace" in the region.Iran's Economy in the Crisis Equilibrium Trap
۳ MB
In the fourth chapter, titled "Iran's Economy in the Crisis Equilibrium Trap," Shabani provides a precise picture of Iran's economic situation: liquidity has exceeded 13,500 trillion tomans, point-to-point inflation has risen to 77 percent, and gasoline production has dropped by about 10 to 15 percent. This situation is a concrete example of "dysfunctional stability"; a state where the economy is neither stable enough to grow nor unstable enough to collapse.This "crisis equilibrium trap" is precisely what prevents any fundamental change, while at the same time preventing the complete collapse of the system. From Shabani's perspective, "Hot Summer" is neither a coup nor a collapse; it is a test of a new equilibrium in which no actor can change the situation in its favor through unilateral action.The Likely Scenario: Stabilization and Completion of Cold Peace
In the eighth chapter, titled "The Future of Equilibrium," Shabani predicts that trends will move towards the continuation of cold peace, the continuation of crisis equilibrium, and the continuation of dysfunctional stability. In this scenario, which appears to be the most likely option, the current memorandum of understanding will transform into a more stable agreement. China, as an active mediator, will bring both parties back to the negotiating table. Iran will maintain its strategic deterrence, and the United States will come to terms with the reality that eliminating Iran is impossible.
ConclusionThe logic of cold peace as narrated in the book "Hot Summer" is based on the principle that the 40-day war has created a structure of mutual deterrence and strategic equilibrium from which neither party has the ability or sufficient incentive to unilaterally withdraw. This cold peace has been formed not out of pacifism, but out of the inability to change the status quo and the exorbitant costs of any unilateral action.Shabani emphasizes in his book that "neither collapse will occur nor salvation; rather, the continuation of the critical situation as the system's steady state" and that "Hot Summer is the test of this new equilibrium." This is precisely the logic that makes cold peace – in the absence of any warm peace or all-out war – the most likely option facing Iran and the United States; a cold peace under the shadow of a new Cold War among the great powers.___________________________IDO NO : 10.5281/zenodo.21259550----------------------------You can read free copy of this book in English resources that released for educational research only.https://archive.org/details/hot-summer-en#Book #War #Cold_Peace #Peace #IRAN #USA #Middleeast
01:49 - 19 تیر 1405
435 بازدید
