Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast, Sees $90 a Barrel at Year-End
Goldman Sachs raised its crude oil price forecasts for the rest of this year because of lower supply from West Asia, highlighting the risk of longer-lasting energy market disruption from the Iran war.
The bank now estimates that Brent crude prices will average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter, from $80 previously. It sees WTI, the US benchmark, at $83 a barrel, versus $75 previously. Crude oil prices have risen around 40% since the war started, with the price of Brent trading at a three-week high Monday.In a note Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts warned of “larger” economic risks because of “upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.”Goldman’s base forecast assumes that Persian Gulf oil exports will normalize by the end of June, later than its previous estimate of mid-May. Persian Gulf oil production is also expected to take longer to recover.In an “adverse scenario” in which Persian Gulf exports normalize only by the end of July, Goldman sees Brent averaging just over $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter.Oil traders also think higher prices will persist for some time yet. Futures contracts show Brent hovering between $86 and $90 a barrel in the final quarter of the year — up significantly from $73 a barrel, where it was trading just before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.Investment bank Citi has also raised its Brent oil price outlook for the remainder of 2026, with its base case forecast at $80 a barrel for the fourth quarter, Reuters reported.
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